--- title: Why the Dashboard Now Has Two KISS Portfolios canonical: "https://themacrodashboard.com/blog/why-the-dashboard-now-has-two-kiss-portfolios/" pubDate: "2026-06-01T00:00:00.000Z" updatedDate: "2026-06-01T00:00:00.000Z" author: The Macro Dashboard description: "Why the tax-deferred KISS portfolio moves faster, why Taxable KISS waits longer, and how to decide which signal belongs in each account." categories: [Field Notes] --- An IRA and a taxable brokerage account can own the same investments and still need different risk rules. A sale inside an IRA changes the portfolio. A sale in a brokerage account can also create a capital-gains bill, shorten a holding period, or complicate a future purchase. Treating those trades as interchangeable never made much sense. The dashboard now publishes two KISS portfolios from the same 60% stocks, 30% gold, and 10% Bitcoin reference maximum. Tax Deferred KISS is the faster model. Taxable KISS moves more slowly because avoiding an unnecessary taxable sale can be just as important as responding to a weak market signal. There is one email list, and each Friday email will show both. ## The maximum allocation is the same Both portfolios start with the same risk budget. At full exposure, the reference model can hold: - 60% stocks - 30% gold - 10% Bitcoin The current allocation may use all, part, or none of each sleeve. Unused exposure moves to cash. This is why the percentage of maximum exposure matters more than the reference weights alone. If stocks are at 50% of maximum exposure, the model is using half of its stock budget. That produces a 30% stock target in the reference portfolio, but someone whose personal maximum is 40% stocks could translate the same signal to a 20% target. The two portfolios can therefore share a maximum allocation while reaching different current targets. ## Tax Deferred KISS can move faster Tax Deferred KISS is designed for IRAs, retirement plans, and other accounts where a trade does not normally create an immediate capital-gains bill. It begins with the top-down market regime. Risk appetite, credit, rates, inflation, and funding conditions determine the starting target for stocks, gold, and Bitcoin. VAMS then checks the trend and momentum of each asset before the portfolio uses that target. Signals still require confirmation. Risk reductions need two closes. Additions and rotations at the same total risk level need five. Those delays help prevent one bad day from becoming a portfolio decision. Even with confirmation, this is the more active portfolio. Its historical simulation has averaged about 1.5 model target changes per month since January 2020. One target change can require more than one brokerage order. The benefit is a faster response when market evidence weakens. The cost is more trading and a greater chance of getting defensive during a temporary decline. ## Taxable KISS waits for a stronger reason to sell A taxable account has another risk to manage: taxes. Selling an appreciated position can turn an unrealized gain into a tax bill. The holding period matters. Cost basis matters. Available losses and other tax lots matter. The dashboard cannot know those details for every subscriber. Taxable KISS therefore uses separate defensive states for stocks and Bitcoin instead of moving the whole portfolio with every broad regime change. Each asset must satisfy its own defensive conditions before its target falls. Gold remains at its strategic maximum because the historical testing did not support a standalone gold sell rule. The model has averaged about 0.1 published state changes per month since January 2020. That is a large reduction in activity compared with Tax Deferred KISS. There is a price for waiting. Taxable KISS accepts more drawdown than the tax-deferred model. It is trying to avoid the worst market losses without repeatedly creating short-term taxable sales. It cannot provide the same drawdown protection as the faster model while trading one-tenth as often. ## A household may use both The portfolios are not competing recommendations. They are implementations for different account types. Someone might use the Tax Deferred signal for an IRA and the Taxable signal for a brokerage account. The allocations can differ even when both accounts belong to the same person. That is preferable to choosing whichever model currently has the more attractive allocation. The account should determine the signal, not today's signal determine the account. Taxable investors still need to review cost basis, holding period, tax rates, cash flows, and wash-sale exposure before implementing a defensive target. The published allocation is a model target, not an instruction to sell a particular lot. ## One subscription covers both signals There is now one Macro Dashboard email list. Each weekly email will begin with two sections: - Tax Deferred (fast moving) signals - Taxable (slow moving) signals The email will show the current allocation, percentage of maximum exposure, and the relevant state behind each portfolio. Confirmed portfolio-change alerts will also use the same list and will identify which model changed. Subscribers do not need to choose an alert type. They only need to decide which portfolio applies to each account they manage. That is the simplest way to read the split: use the fast-moving signal where trading has little immediate tax friction, and use the slow-moving signal where every defensive sale needs to earn its place.