Active quadrant
Inflationary Bust
Defensive stagflation: preserve optionality while bonds and equities can both struggle.
Favored: Cash, T-bills, short duration, optionality.
Gavekal Regime
A four-quadrant regime map using public monthly ETF proxy ratios. Each ratio is compared with its 7-year moving average to classify the inflation and growth axes.
Latest month
May 2026
Inflation axis
GLD / IEF
4.57x
7-year MA2.10x
LatestMay 2026
Inflationary pressure / monetary distrust
Boom/bust axis
SPY / USO
5.52x
7-year MA7.39x
LatestMay 2026
Bust / oil and input costs pressuring equities
Gold / 10Y Treasuries
GLD / IEF
Range1.05x–4.94x
WindowJun 2016–May 2026
S&P 500 / Oil
SPY / USO
Range2.25x–15.19x
WindowJun 2016–May 2026
Quadrants
2x2 Regime Map
Inflation axis runs top-to-bottom; growth/boom-bust axis runs left-to-right. The highlighted quadrant is the current regime.
← Deflationary / Inflationary →
Bust ← / Boom →
Inflationary Bust
CurrentDefensive stagflation: preserve optionality while bonds and equities can both struggle.
Favored: Cash, T-bills, short duration, optionality.
Inflation: Gold/Treasuries above 7-year MA
Growth: S&P/Oil below 7-year MA
Inflationary Boom
Risk-on with inflation protection: scarcity assets lead.
Favored: Gold, energy, commodities, resource equities, real assets.
Inflation: Gold/Treasuries above 7-year MA
Growth: S&P/Oil above 7-year MA
Deflationary Bust
Risk-off recession/deflation: duration becomes the classic hedge.
Favored: Long high-quality government bonds, intermediate duration, cash.
Inflation: Gold/Treasuries below 7-year MA
Growth: S&P/Oil below 7-year MA
Deflationary Boom
Risk-on: equities and efficiency assets lead; bonds can also work.
Favored: Equities, productivity, quality growth, some duration.
Inflation: Gold/Treasuries below 7-year MA
Growth: S&P/Oil above 7-year MA