Market regime
ReflationRisk-on
Reflation is the highest-confirmation market regime (10 of 23 weighted confirmations).
Portfolio
Reflation · Risk-onPublic market and macro data are transformed into top-down regime signals, asset-level trend states, and dynamic allocations used to risk-manage a portfolio of 60% stocks, 30% gold, and 10% Bitcoin.
Snapshot
GeneratedMay 8, 2026, 11:06 PM CDT
Sourcestatus.json
Risk-on share
83%
Risk-off share: 17%. Winner margin: 1 confirmations.
Bottom-up GRID
ReflationGRID
Growth diffusion 60%; inflation diffusion 80%.
Liquidity
Neutral-1.9% 4w
US net-liquidity proxy is neutral (-1.9% 4w, 2.4% 13w).
Current Portfolio Allocation
Actual portfolio weights plus percentage of maximum exposure. Unused exposure goes to Cash
Gross Exposure
Percentage of Maximum Exposure
Stocks
Bullish VT
Weight 60.0%
% max exposure
100%Top-down target
60.0%Bullish: z=0.24, 5/5 trend votes, price above 200dma, 3m return 6.0%.
Gold
Bearish GLDM
Weight 0.0%
% max exposure
0%Top-down target
30.0%Bearish: z=-0.98, 2/5 trend votes, price above 200dma, 3m return -4.7%.
Bitcoin
Neutral FBTC/BTC
Weight 5.0%
% max exposure
50%Top-down target
10.0%Neutral: z=-0.60, 3/5 trend votes, price below 200dma, 3m return 12.9%.
Cash
n/a SPAXX
Weight 35.0%
% max exposure
35%Top-down target
residualResidual from top-down and VAMS risk controls goes to cash; cash can reach 100% when all risk assets are bearish.
How To Use This
Start with the 60/30/10 base portfolio, then let the top-down regime and bottom-up trend overlays decide how much of each sleeve to actually hold.
1. Base portfolio
60% stocks / 30% gold / 10% bitcoin
The strategic mix is 60% global equities, 30% gold, and 10% bitcoin. Those weights are the maximum risk-asset exposures for the model. Any unused exposure is parked in cash.
2. Top-down overlay
Market regime sets the target
The top-down regime map reads growth and inflation momentum from public macro and market proxies. Risk-on regimes can allow full exposure, while risk-off regimes cut the risk allocations by half and shift the difference to cash.
3. Bottom-up overlay
VAMS confirms each asset
Each sleeve also gets a bottom-up volatility-adjusted momentum signal. Bullish assets can receive 100% of their top-down target, neutral assets get partial exposure, and bearish assets are reduced or removed.
4. Custom base allocation
Scale by % max exposure
If your personal base allocation is different, use the “% max exposure” column as the multiplier. For example, if your base stock target is 40% and stocks show 50% max exposure, your current stock weight would be 20%.
Follow on Nostr for public model updates. The data is also available in JSON for direct use in apps, notebooks, dashboards, and automation.
Portfolio Performance
Actual performance of the risk-managed dynamic allocation portfolio compared to the base 60/30/10 portfolio with annual rebalancing.
Trading Days
63
2026-02-05 → 2026-05-07
7 KISS rebalances
KISS ending value
$106,000
CAGR 26.3%; max drawdown -4.3%.
60/30/10 ending value
$106,411
CAGR 28.3%; max drawdown -10.2%.
Sortino improvement
1.8x
Actual KISS Sortino ratio divided by the annual-rebalanced 60/30/10 Sortino ratio.
Actual KISS signals 60/30/10 annual rebalance KISS rebalance
| Portfolio | Ending value | Total return | CAGR | Sortino ratio | Max drawdown | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual KISS signals | $106,000 | 6.0% | 26.3% | 3.94 | -4.3% | 11.9% |
| 60/30/10 annual rebalance | $106,411 | 6.4% | 28.3% | 2.16 | -10.2% | 19.9% |
KISS rule: Actual-signal KISS starts on 2026-02-05 at 60% stocks / 30% gold / 10% bitcoin. A changed target must persist for two consecutive closes before the full portfolio is rebalanced after that day’s close; unused exposure earns the 3-month T-bill cash proxy.
Benchmark rule: Benchmark starts with the same 60% stocks / 30% gold / 10% bitcoin portfolio and is fully rebalanced on the first trading day of each calendar year.
Sortino Ratio: return per unit of downside volatility. On this page, it is calculated as CAGR divided by annualized downside deviation of daily returns below 0%; higher is better.
Market Regime Map
The top-down regime is a 2x2 map of growth and inflation momentum. Top row is rising inflation; right column is improving growth.
← Inflation falling / Inflation rising →
← Growth slowing / Growth improving →
Inflation
4 confirmations
Performs well: Gold, commodities, cash/T-bills, and short-duration defenses tend to hold up best. Equities usually need selectivity because margins and multiples are under pressure.
Growth: Growth falling / slowing
Inflation: Inflation rising
Reflation
10 confirmations
Performs well: Cyclicals, broad equities, bitcoin, commodities, and real-asset exposure tend to perform well as growth and nominal demand accelerate together.
Growth: Growth rising / improving
Inflation: Inflation rising
Deflation
0 confirmations
Performs well: Cash/T-bills and high-quality duration are the classic safe havens. Risk assets usually struggle; gold can help when policy/liquidity stress rises.
Growth: Growth falling / slowing
Inflation: Inflation falling
Goldilocks
9 confirmations
Performs well: Broad equities, bitcoin, credit, quality growth, and lower-volatility risk assets tend to do well because growth is improving while inflation pressure eases.
Growth: Growth rising / improving
Inflation: Inflation falling
VAMS Signals
Bottom-up asset momentum determines whether each target receives 100%, 50%, or 0% exposure.
Stocks
VT
Bullish
3m return
6.0%RSI 14
63.6Vol 63d
17.4%Bullish: z=0.24, 5/5 trend votes, price above 200dma, 3m return 6.0%.
Gold
GLDM
Bearish
3m return
-4.7%RSI 14
44.5Vol 63d
30.6%Bearish: z=-0.98, 2/5 trend votes, price above 200dma, 3m return -4.7%.
Bitcoin
FBTC/BTC
Neutral
3m return
12.9%RSI 14
57.1Vol 63d
32.2%Neutral: z=-0.60, 3/5 trend votes, price below 200dma, 3m return 12.9%.
Regime Scores
Goldilocks
9
Score Reflation
10
Current Inflation
4
Score Deflation
0
Score What Is Confirming the Regime?
Cross-asset confirmations behind the top-down market regime.
Global stocks (VT)
Bullish→ Goldilocks / Reflation
High beta / low vol (SPHB/SPLV)
Bullish→ Goldilocks / Reflation
Cyclicals / defensives
Bullish→ Goldilocks / Reflation
Small caps / stocks (IWM/SPY)
Bullish→ Goldilocks / Reflation
High yield / Treasurys (HYG/IEF)
Bullish→ Goldilocks / Reflation
Bitcoin
Neutral→ No strong confirmation
Commodities (DBC)
Bullish→ Reflation / Inflation
US Dollar (UUP)
Bearish→ Goldilocks / Reflation
Equity volatility (^VIX)
Bearish→ Goldilocks / Reflation
Gold
Bearish→ Inflation
10y Treasury yield trend
Bullish→ Reflation / Inflation
Credit spreads
Bullish→ Goldilocks / Reflation
Yield curve
Bearish→ Goldilocks / Inflation
Macro Outlook
Bottom-up macro data currently maps to Reflation: growth improving and inflation rising.
Growth features
Real GDP YoY 2.0% → 2.7% Rising
Industrial production YoY 1.3% → 0.7% Falling
Payrolls YoY 0.2% → 0.2% Falling
Unemployment rate YoY (inverse) 7.5% → 2.4% Rising
Initial claims YoY (inverse) 8.5% → -16.3% Rising
Inflation features
Headline CPI YoY 2.7% → 3.3% Rising
Core CPI YoY 2.6% → 2.6% Falling
Core PCE YoY 3.0% → 3.2% Rising
PPI YoY 3.1% → 6.0% Rising
10y breakeven inflation YoY -3.3% → 7.0% Rising
VAMS Calculation Details
A rule-level look at each asset’s volatility-adjusted momentum score, trend votes, final signal, and the rule that produced it.
Stocks
VT
z-score
0.24 Neutral Trend votes
5/5 Bullish Price > 50dma
Bullish 155.18 vs 144.82
Price > 200dma
Bullish 155.18 vs 140.77
50dma > 200dma
Bullish 144.82 vs 140.77
3m return > 0
Bullish 6.0%
50dma rising
Bullish 144.82 vs 143.90 10d ago
Triggered rule
Bullish: trend confirmation Price is above the 200dma, 3m return is positive, and at least 4 of 5 trend votes are bullish.
Gold
GLDM
z-score
-0.98 Bearish Trend votes
2/5 Bearish Price > 50dma
Bearish 93.49 vs 94.61
Price > 200dma
Bullish 93.49 vs 84.90
50dma > 200dma
Bullish 94.61 vs 84.90
3m return > 0
Bearish -4.7%
50dma rising
Bearish 94.61 vs 96.36 10d ago
Triggered rule
Bearish: z-score + weak trend breadth z < -0.25 and 2 or fewer of 5 trend votes are bullish.
Bitcoin
FBTC/BTC
z-score
-0.60 Bearish Trend votes
3/5 Neutral Price > 50dma
Bullish 80,009.99 vs 73,236.66
Price > 200dma
Bearish 80,009.99 vs 83,144.30
50dma > 200dma
Bearish 73,236.66 vs 83,144.30
3m return > 0
Bullish 12.9%
50dma rising
Bullish 73,236.66 vs 71,797.29 10d ago
Triggered rule
Neutral: no bullish or bearish rule triggered Neither bullish rule nor bearish rule has enough confirmation, so VAMS remains neutral.
How VAMS is calculated
- Raw momentum score = weighted 1m / 3m / 6m / 12m log returns divided by 63-day annualized realized volatility. Weights are 20%, 35%, 30%, and 15%.
- z-score compares today’s raw momentum score to roughly the prior three years of raw scores. z > +0.25 is bullish pressure; z < -0.25 is bearish pressure; the middle zone is neutral.
- The five trend votes are price > 50dma, price > 200dma, 50dma > 200dma, 3m return > 0, and 50dma rising versus 10 trading days ago.
- Bullish triggers when z > +0.25 with at least 3 trend votes, or when price is above the 200dma, 3m return is positive, and at least 4 trend votes are bullish.
- Bearish triggers when z < -0.25 with 2 or fewer trend votes, or when price is below the 200dma, 3m return is negative, and 2 or fewer trend votes are bullish. If neither side triggers, the asset remains Neutral.
- VAMS state changes require two consecutive closes in the new state before the model confirms the change. One-day flips are shown as pending and do not change the confirmed allocation.
Daily Signal History
Newest first. Percent columns show actual exposure as a share of each sleeve's maximum exposure.
| Date | Bias | Regime | Stocks % Max | Gold % Max | Bitcoin % Max | Confirmations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | Risk-on | Reflation | 100% | 0% | 50% | 10 Reflation9 Goldilocks4 Inflation0 Deflation |
| 2026-05-07 | Risk-on | Reflation | 100% | 0% | 50% | 10 Reflation9 Goldilocks4 Inflation0 Deflation |
| 2026-05-06 | Risk-on | Reflation | 100% | 0% | 50% | 9 Reflation8 Goldilocks4 Inflation0 Deflation |
| 2026-05-05 | Risk-on | Reflation | 100% | 0% | 50% | 9 Reflation8 Goldilocks4 Inflation0 Deflation |
| 2026-05-04 | Risk-on | Reflation | 100% | 0% | 50% | 7 Reflation6 Goldilocks4 Inflation0 Deflation |
| 2026-05-01 | Risk-on | Reflation | 100% | 0% | 50% | 8 Reflation7 Goldilocks4 Inflation0 Deflation |
| 2026-04-30 | Risk-on | Reflation | 100% | 0% | 50% | 8 Reflation7 Goldilocks4 Inflation0 Deflation |
| 2026-04-29 | Risk-on | Reflation | 100% | 0% | 50% | 8 Reflation7 Goldilocks5 Inflation1 Deflation |
| 2026-04-28 | Risk-on | Reflation | 100% | 0% | 50% | 7 Reflation6 Goldilocks5 Inflation1 Deflation |
| 2026-04-27 | Risk-on | Reflation | 100% | 0% | 50% | 7 Reflation6 Goldilocks4 Inflation0 Deflation |
| 2026-04-24 | Risk-on | Reflation | 100% | 0% | 50% | 6 Reflation5 Goldilocks5 Inflation1 Deflation |
| 2026-04-23 | Risk-on | Reflation | 100% | 0% | 50% | 6 Reflation5 Goldilocks5 Inflation1 Deflation |
| 2026-04-22 | Risk-on | Reflation | 100% | 0% | 50% | 6 Reflation5 Goldilocks5 Inflation1 Deflation |
| 2026-04-21 | Risk-on | Reflation | 100% | 50% | 50% | 7 Reflation6 Goldilocks4 Inflation0 Deflation |
| 2026-04-20 | Risk-on | Reflation | 100% | 50% | 50% | 8 Reflation7 Goldilocks4 Inflation1 Deflation |
| 2026-04-17 | Risk-on | Reflation | 100% | 50% | 50% | 8 Reflation7 Goldilocks3 Inflation0 Deflation |
| 2026-04-16 | Risk-on | Reflation | 100% | 50% | 50% | 8 Reflation7 Goldilocks3 Inflation0 Deflation |
| 2026-04-15 | Risk-on | Reflation | 100% | 50% | 50% | 7 Reflation6 Goldilocks3 Inflation0 Deflation |
| 2026-04-14 | Risk-on | Reflation | 100% | 50% | 50% | 7 Reflation6 Goldilocks4 Inflation1 Deflation |
| 2026-04-13 | Risk-on | Reflation | 100% | 50% | 50% | 6 Reflation5 Goldilocks5 Inflation2 Deflation |
| 2026-04-10 | Risk-on | Reflation | 100% | 50% | 50% | 6 Reflation5 Goldilocks5 Inflation2 Deflation |
| 2026-04-09 | Risk-on | Reflation | 100% | 50% | 0% | 6 Reflation5 Goldilocks4 Inflation1 Deflation |
| 2026-04-08 | Risk-off | Inflation | 0% | 25% | 0% | 4 Reflation4 Goldilocks6 Inflation4 Deflation |
| 2026-04-07 | Risk-off | Inflation | 0% | 25% | 0% | 3 Reflation3 Goldilocks8 Inflation6 Deflation |
| 2026-04-06 | Risk-off | Inflation | 0% | 25% | 0% | 3 Reflation3 Goldilocks8 Inflation6 Deflation |
| 2026-04-02 | Risk-off | Inflation | 0% | 25% | 0% | 4 Reflation3 Goldilocks9 Inflation6 Deflation |
| 2026-04-01 | Risk-off | Inflation | 0% | 50% | 0% | 4 Reflation3 Goldilocks9 Inflation6 Deflation |
| 2026-03-31 | Risk-off | Inflation | 0% | 50% | 0% | 3 Reflation4 Goldilocks8 Inflation7 Deflation |
| 2026-03-30 | Risk-off | Inflation | 0% | 50% | 0% | 3 Reflation2 Goldilocks11 Inflation8 Deflation |
| 2026-03-27 | Risk-off | Inflation | 0% | 50% | 0% | 4 Reflation4 Goldilocks10 Inflation8 Deflation |
| 2026-03-26 | Risk-off | Inflation | 0% | 50% | 0% | 4 Reflation3 Goldilocks9 Inflation6 Deflation |
| 2026-03-25 | Risk-off | Inflation | 0% | 50% | 0% | 4 Reflation4 Goldilocks9 Inflation7 Deflation |
| 2026-03-24 | Risk-off | Inflation | 0% | 50% | 0% | 4 Reflation4 Goldilocks8 Inflation6 Deflation |
| 2026-03-23 | Risk-off | Inflation | 0% | 50% | 0% | 4 Reflation4 Goldilocks8 Inflation6 Deflation |
| 2026-03-20 | Risk-off | Inflation | 0% | 50% | 0% | 4 Reflation4 Goldilocks8 Inflation6 Deflation |
| 2026-03-19 | Risk-off | Inflation | 0% | 50% | 0% | 3 Reflation3 Goldilocks8 Inflation6 Deflation |
| 2026-03-18 | Risk-off | Inflation | 25% | 50% | 0% | 4 Reflation4 Goldilocks9 Inflation7 Deflation |
| 2026-03-17 | Risk-off | Inflation | 25% | 50% | 0% | 4 Reflation5 Goldilocks6 Inflation5 Deflation |
| 2026-03-16 | Risk-off | Inflation | 25% | 50% | 0% | 2 Reflation3 Goldilocks8 Inflation7 Deflation |
| 2026-03-13 | Risk-off | Inflation | 25% | 50% | 0% | 3 Reflation3 Goldilocks10 Inflation8 Deflation |
| 2026-03-12 | Risk-off | Inflation | 50% | 50% | 0% | 3 Reflation3 Goldilocks9 Inflation7 Deflation |
| 2026-03-11 | Risk-off | Inflation | 50% | 50% | 0% | 3 Reflation4 Goldilocks6 Inflation5 Deflation |
| 2026-03-10 | Risk-off | Inflation | 50% | 50% | 0% | 4 Reflation5 Goldilocks7 Inflation6 Deflation |
| 2026-03-09 | Risk-off | Inflation | 50% | 50% | 0% | 4 Reflation5 Goldilocks7 Inflation6 Deflation |
| 2026-03-06 | Risk-off | Inflation | 50% | 50% | 0% | 4 Reflation5 Goldilocks7 Inflation6 Deflation |
| 2026-03-05 | Risk-on | Goldilocks | 100% | 100% | 0% | 5 Reflation6 Goldilocks6 Inflation5 Deflation |
| 2026-03-04 | Risk-off | Inflation | 50% | 50% | 0% | 4 Reflation6 Goldilocks7 Inflation7 Deflation |
| 2026-03-03 | Risk-off | Inflation | 50% | 50% | 0% | 4 Reflation6 Goldilocks7 Inflation7 Deflation |
| 2026-03-02 | Risk-off | Inflation | 50% | 50% | 0% | 4 Reflation6 Goldilocks7 Inflation7 Deflation |
| 2026-02-27 | Risk-off | Inflation | 50% | 50% | 0% | 4 Reflation6 Goldilocks7 Inflation7 Deflation |
| 2026-02-26 | Risk-on | Goldilocks | 100% | 100% | 0% | 5 Reflation7 Goldilocks7 Inflation7 Deflation |
| 2026-02-25 | Risk-on | Goldilocks | 100% | 100% | 0% | 5 Reflation7 Goldilocks6 Inflation6 Deflation |
| 2026-02-24 | Risk-on | Goldilocks | 100% | 100% | 0% | 5 Reflation7 Goldilocks6 Inflation6 Deflation |
| 2026-02-23 | Risk-on | Goldilocks | 100% | 100% | 0% | 5 Reflation7 Goldilocks5 Inflation5 Deflation |
| 2026-02-20 | Risk-on | Goldilocks | 100% | 100% | 0% | 6 Reflation8 Goldilocks4 Inflation4 Deflation |
| 2026-02-19 | Risk-on | Goldilocks | 100% | 100% | 0% | 7 Reflation8 Goldilocks4 Inflation3 Deflation |
| 2026-02-18 | Risk-on | Goldilocks | 100% | 100% | 0% | 6 Reflation8 Goldilocks4 Inflation4 Deflation |
| 2026-02-17 | Risk-on | Goldilocks | 100% | 100% | 0% | 5 Reflation7 Goldilocks4 Inflation4 Deflation |
| 2026-02-13 | Risk-on | Goldilocks | 100% | 100% | 0% | 5 Reflation7 Goldilocks5 Inflation5 Deflation |
| 2026-02-12 | Risk-on | Goldilocks | 100% | 100% | 0% | 5 Reflation5 Goldilocks4 Inflation4 Deflation |
| 2026-02-11 | Risk-on | Reflation | 100% | 100% | 0% | 8 Reflation7 Goldilocks3 Inflation4 Deflation |
| 2026-02-10 | Risk-on | Reflation | 100% | 100% | 0% | 7 Reflation6 Goldilocks2 Inflation3 Deflation |
| 2026-02-09 | Risk-on | Reflation | 100% | 100% | 0% | 10 Reflation9 Goldilocks2 Inflation3 Deflation |
| 2026-02-06 | Risk-on | Reflation | 100% | 100% | 0% | 8 Reflation6 Goldilocks4 Inflation4 Deflation |
| 2026-02-05 | Risk-on | Reflation | 100% | 100% | 0% | 7 Reflation5 Goldilocks5 Inflation5 Deflation |