The Liquidity Framework uses public-data signals that correlate with global liquidity. We provide a fast nowcast of funding and market stress with a slower moving liquidity-cycle regime that smooths noisy transitions.
The smoothed cycle regime remains in a stable calm phase with no persistent transition signal yet.
Trigger: Desired Calm because liquidity is still broadly supportive and the warning cluster is not persistent enough to keep the cycle in a late-stage regime.
FRED WALCL - RRPONTSYD - WTREGEN
Treasury volatility is relatively contained.
20d change -4.9; 75th pct 100.4; 90th pct 112.0.
Credit spreads are relatively calm.
20d change -0.11 pts; 75th pct 3.56; 90th pct 4.05.
Funding spread looks normal.
Current -0.050%; 60d avg -0.000%; deviation -4.9 bps.
Broader financial conditions remain calm.
8w change -0.24; 75th pct 0.25; 90th pct 0.80.
Equity trend remains supportive.
vs 200d avg 9.6%; 20d change 8.5%.
Liquidity and market-stress signals are broadly supportive. The model sees a stable backdrop without a persistent transition warning.
Liquidity is rolling over or warning indicators are clustering, but stress is not yet broad enough to classify the environment as turbulence.
A liquidity squeeze is confirmed by stress indicators. Funding, credit, volatility, or market-trend signals are defensive enough to treat the backdrop as risk-off.
Post-stress repair phase. Liquidity and market plumbing are improving together after a turbulence episode, but the cycle has not fully reset to calm.
| Date | SPY | Total | Nowcast | Cycle | 13w liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 7,230.12 | 0 | Calm | Calm | 0.9% |
| 2026-04-24 | 7,165.08 | 0 | Calm | Speculation | -0.2% |
| 2026-04-17 | 7,126.06 | 0 | Calm | Speculation | 2.6% |
| 2026-04-10 | 6,816.89 | 0 | Calm | Speculation | 2.9% |
| 2026-04-03 | 6,582.69 | 4 | Speculation | Speculation | 0.4% |
| 2026-03-27 | 6,368.85 | 6 | Speculation | Speculation | 0.7% |
| 2026-03-20 | 6,506.48 | 5 | Speculation | Speculation | 1.4% |
| 2026-03-13 | 6,632.19 | 5 | Speculation | Speculation | 2.2% |
| 2026-03-06 | 6,740.02 | 4 | Speculation | Speculation | 3.5% |
| 2026-02-27 | 6,878.88 | 2 | Speculation | Speculation | 1.4% |
| 2026-02-20 | 6,909.51 | 1 | Rebound | Speculation | 1.6% |
| 2026-02-13 | 6,836.17 | 3 | Speculation | Calm | 1.4% |
| 2026-02-06 | 6,932.3 | 0 | Rebound | Calm | 1.2% |
| 2026-01-30 | 6,939.03 | 0 | Rebound | Calm | 0.6% |
| 2026-01-23 | 6,915.61 | 0 | Rebound | Calm | 0.6% |
| 2026-01-16 | 6,940.01 | 0 | Rebound | Calm | 0.3% |
| 2026-01-09 | 6,966.28 | 0 | Rebound | Calm | -0.1% |
| 2026-01-02 | 6,858.47 | 0 | Rebound | Calm | 0.4% |
| 2025-12-26 | 6,929.94 | 0 | Calm | Calm | -1.0% |
| 2025-12-19 | 6,834.5 | 1 | Calm | Speculation | -2.2% |
| 2025-12-12 | 6,827.41 | 0 | Calm | Speculation | -4.3% |
| 2025-12-05 | 6,870.4 | 0 | Calm | Speculation | -6.8% |
| 2025-11-28 | 6,849.09 | 2 | Speculation | Speculation | -6.1% |
| 2025-11-21 | 6,602.99 | 4 | Speculation | Speculation | -8.0% |
| 2025-11-14 | 6,734.11 | 0 | Calm | Speculation | -8.3% |
| 2025-11-07 | 6,728.8 | 1 | Calm | Speculation | -9.5% |
| 2025-10-31 | 6,840.2 | 2 | Speculation | Speculation | -10.3% |
| 2025-10-24 | 6,791.69 | 1 | Rebound | Speculation | -10.3% |
| 2025-10-17 | 6,664.01 | 3 | Speculation | Speculation | -9.1% |
| 2025-10-10 | 6,552.51 | 3 | Speculation | Calm | -8.8% |
| 2025-10-03 | 6,715.79 | 1 | Rebound | Calm | -8.2% |
| 2025-09-26 | 6,643.7 | 1 | Rebound | Calm | -7.8% |
| 2025-09-19 | 6,664.36 | 1 | Rebound | Calm | -7.7% |
| 2025-09-12 | 6,584.29 | 1 | Rebound | Calm | -6.5% |
| 2025-09-05 | 6,481.5 | 3 | Speculation | Calm | -4.6% |
| 2025-08-29 | 6,460.26 | 1 | Rebound | Calm | -3.1% |
| 2025-08-22 | 6,466.91 | 0 | Rebound | Calm | -1.4% |
| 2025-08-15 | 6,449.8 | 0 | Rebound | Calm | 0.0% |
| 2025-08-08 | 6,389.45 | 1 | Rebound | Calm | 1.5% |
| 2025-08-01 | 6,238.01 | 1 | Rebound | Calm | 2.6% |
| 2025-07-25 | 6,388.64 | 0 | Rebound | Calm | 3.5% |
| 2025-07-18 | 6,296.79 | 0 | Rebound | Calm | 0.9% |
| 2025-07-11 | 6,259.75 | 0 | Rebound | Calm | -1.2% |
| 2025-07-04 | 6,279.35 | 0 | Rebound | Calm | -1.7% |
| 2025-06-27 | 6,173.07 | 1 | Rebound | Calm | -1.3% |
| 2025-06-20 | 5,967.84 | 0 | Rebound | Calm | 0.4% |
| 2025-06-13 | 5,976.97 | 0 | Calm | Calm | 1.6% |
| 2025-06-06 | 6,000.36 | 0 | Rebound | Calm | 1.4% |
| 2025-05-30 | 5,911.69 | 0 | Calm | Calm | 2.0% |
| 2025-05-23 | 5,802.82 | 0 | Calm | Calm | 3.2% |
| 2025-05-16 | 5,958.38 | 0 | Calm | Calm | 2.5% |
| 2025-05-09 | 5,659.91 | 1 | Calm | Calm | 2.0% |
