Confirmed portfolio allocation
The confirmed model weights and each sleeve's current share of maximum exposure.
Gross Exposure
Confirmed Allocation
30% Stocks (VT)
0% Gold (GLDM)
5% Bitcoin (FBTC)
65% Cash (SPAXX)
Reduce drawdowns without trying to predict the market.
The Macro Dashboard turns public market and macro data into clear allocation targets for the KISS portfolio.
What the dashboard helps you do
Use active signals to reduce drawdowns
Large losses are hard to recover from, and the timing of those losses matters most when you are withdrawing from a portfolio. The dashboard gives you a repeatable way to reduce exposure when market evidence weakens and add it back when conditions recover.
Know today's targetSee the current allocation and percentage of maximum exposure for each sleeve.
Understand the decisionRead the regime, VAMS, or asset-specific defensive state behind the target.
Match the accountChoose faster risk control for tax-deferred assets or a slower approach for taxable assets.
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Live top-down reading
Market nowcast
The nowcast is today's market reading. Portfolio changes become actionable only after the required consecutive closes.
Market nowcast
Inflation
Risk-off evidence leads 75% to 25%. Inflation is the confirmed regime.
- Winner margin
- 18.8
- Data coverage
- 100%
- Confidence
- High
Risk on
Goldilocks
9.4
Score Reflation
21.9
Score Risk off
Inflation
56.3
Current Deflation
37.5
Score Current and proposed allocations
Stocks
VT
Current allocation 30% Partial reduction · Inflation Confirmed Sep 16
Supporting calculations
Latest signal inputs.
z-score input
-0.81BearishTrend-vote input
4/5BullishPrice > 50dma
Bearish156.82 vs 159.67
Price > 200dma
Bullish156.82 vs 151.42
50dma > 200dma
Bullish159.67 vs 151.42
3m return > 0
Bullish1.9%
50dma rising
Bullish159.67 vs 159.06 10d ago
Signal rule and confirmation
Bullish: trend confirmationPrice is above the 200dma, 3m return is positive, and at least 4 of 5 trend votes are bullish.
The conditions below would change the raw signal. Confirmation still applies. Raw Neutral means neither the Bullish nor Bearish rule is met.
Gold
GLDM
Current allocation 0% Bearish VAMS · Reflation Confirmed Sep 17
Supporting calculations
Latest signal inputs.
z-score input
-1.82BearishTrend-vote input
2/5BearishPrice > 50dma
Bearish390.62 vs 405.92
Price > 200dma
Bearish390.62 vs 423.70
50dma > 200dma
Bearish405.92 vs 423.70
3m return > 0
Bullish4.0%
50dma rising
Bullish405.92 vs 404.96 10d ago
Signal rule and confirmation
Bearish: z-score + weak trend breadthz < -0.25 and 2 or fewer of 5 trend votes are bullish.
The conditions below would change the raw signal. Confirmation still applies. Raw Neutral means neither the Bullish nor Bearish rule is met.
Bitcoin
FBTC/BTC
Current allocation 5% Bullish VAMS · Inflation Confirmed Sep 16
Supporting calculations
Latest signal inputs.
z-score input
0.85BullishTrend-vote input
5/5BullishPrice > 50dma
Bullish81,661.65 vs 81,255.08
Price > 200dma
Bullish81,661.65 vs 72,360.75
50dma > 200dma
Bullish81,255.08 vs 72,360.75
3m return > 0
Bullish29.7%
50dma rising
Bullish81,255.08 vs 79,908.16 10d ago
Signal rule and confirmation
Bullish: z-score and trend confirmationz > +0.25 with at least 3 trend votes, and price > 200dma with positive 3m return and at least 4 trend votes.
The conditions below would change the raw signal. Confirmation still applies. Raw Neutral means neither the Bullish nor Bearish rule is met.
How VAMS is calculated
- Raw momentum score = weighted 1m / 3m / 6m / 12m log returns divided by 63-day annualized realized volatility. Weights are 20%, 35%, 30%, and 15%.
- z-score compares today’s raw momentum score to roughly the prior three years of raw scores. z > +0.25 is bullish pressure; z < -0.25 is bearish pressure; the middle zone is neutral.
- The five trend votes are price > 50dma, price > 200dma, 50dma > 200dma, 3m return > 0, and 50dma rising versus 10 trading days ago.
- Bullish triggers when z > +0.25 with at least 3 trend votes, or when price is above the 200dma, 3m return is positive, and at least 4 trend votes are bullish.
- Bearish triggers when z < -0.25 with 2 or fewer trend votes, or when price is below the 200dma, 3m return is negative, and 2 or fewer trend votes are bullish. If neither side triggers, the asset remains Neutral.
- VAMS reductions require two consecutive closes supporting that exposure or less; increases require two closes in the same new state. Neutral followed by Bearish can confirm Neutral while the full exit continues confirming. Allocation confirmation is separate: two supporting closes to reduce, five identical targets to increase. The same close can advance both stages; worsening signals preserve progress toward smaller reductions.
- RSI 14 is display-only. It does not affect the VAMS state, multiplier, or allocation.
Recent research
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