Built for taxable accounts where selling has a cost. It uses slower, asset-specific defensive rules to reduce severe drawdowns while limiting short-term taxable sales.
The confirmed 60/30/10 model weights and each sleeve's current share of maximum exposure. Sales still require account-level tax-lot review.
Choose the most you would allocate to each asset. The current portfolio signals below will scale to your maximums, with any unused allocation held in cash.
Maximums can total up to 100%. Lower one asset before raising another when fully allocated. Your settings are saved only in this browser.
One email list covers both portfolios: the weekly Tax Deferred (fast moving) and Taxable (slow moving) signals, plus immediate alerts when either published target changes. No spam, unsubscribe anytime.
Each sleeve can reduce exposure independently. The model publishes a target, but cost basis, holding period, cash flows, and tax rates determine how an account should implement it.
Stocks: An exact bearish cloud signal can reduce VT to 80% or 60% of maximum exposure. A bullish cross above the cloud restores normal exposure.
State effective 2026-04-27. Historical defensive reductions: 3 (0.46 per year).
Gold: Gold stays at its strategic maximum because long-history tests did not support a standalone sell rule.
State effective 2020-01-02. Historical defensive reductions: 0 (0.00 per year).
Bitcoin: A bearish cloud signal can reduce exposure to two-thirds or one-third. Recovery also requires a reset to the completed-week 200-week average.
State effective 2024-08-06. Historical defensive reductions: 2 (0.31 per year).
The taxable model accepts more drawdown than the tax-deferred portfolio in exchange for fewer defensive sales.
Pretax daily reconstruction beginning at 60% stocks, 30% gold, and 10% Bitcoin. Taxes, cost basis, and account-specific lots are excluded.
2020-01-02 → 2026-07-20
12 Taxable KISS target changes
CAGR 18.3%; max drawdown -24.3%.
CAGR 19.8%; max drawdown -29.2%.
Model-simulation Sortino divided by 60/30/10 annual rebalance Sortino. Treat cautiously until the common sample spans more regimes.
| Portfolio | Ending value | Total return | CAGR | Sortino ratio | Max drawdown | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60/30/10 Taxable KISS | $299,650 | 199.6% | 18.3% | 1.64 | -24.3% | 15.6% |
| 60/30/10 annual rebalance | $326,852 | 226.9% | 19.8% | 1.60 | -29.2% | 17.4% |
Taxable KISS rule: Taxable KISS starts at 60% stocks / 30% gold / 10% bitcoin. VT uses a daily 18/52/104/26 Ichimoku cloud and Bitcoin uses 20/60/120/30. Only an exact bearish Tenkan/Kijun cross with price below the cloud can reduce exposure; distance above each asset's completed-week 200-week average determines the Caution or Defensive tier. VT scales to 80% at +10% and 60% at +25%; Bitcoin scales to 66.7% at +25% and 33.3% at +100%. VT recovers on an exact bullish TK cross above the cloud; Bitcoin requires a 200-week-average reset followed by a bullish cloud condition. Gold remains at 100% as the strategic diversifier. Signals execute on the next portfolio session, unused exposure earns the 3-month T-bill proxy, and Bitcoin is reviewed at each year-end with a cap where its odds versus the rest of the portfolio equal 150% of its strategic target odds.
Matching-allocation benchmark: Benchmark starts with the same 60% stocks / 30% gold / 10% bitcoin portfolio and is fully rebalanced on the first trading day of each calendar year.
Sortino Ratio: return per unit of downside volatility. On this page, it is calculated as CAGR divided by annualized downside deviation of daily returns below 0%; higher is better.
Next-session implementation dates for VT and Bitcoin. Gold remains fully invested.
| Effective date | Price | Asset | State change | Implementation | Signal date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | $150 | StocksVT | DefensiveNormal | Cash-funded increase | 2026-04-24 |
| 2026-03-25 | $139 | StocksVT | NormalDefensive | Defensive reduction | 2026-03-24 |
| 2024-08-06 | $56,034 | BitcoinFBTC/BTC | NormalCaution | Defensive reduction | 2024-08-05 |
| 2023-01-17 | $21,162 | BitcoinFBTC/BTC | DefensiveNormal | Cash-funded increase | 2023-01-14 |
| 2022-11-11 | $82.48 | StocksVT | DefensiveNormal | Cash-funded increase | 2022-11-10 |
| 2022-02-01 | $94.50 | StocksVT | NormalDefensive | Defensive reduction | 2022-01-31 |
| 2021-12-31 | $98.26 | StocksVT | DefensiveNormal | Cash-funded increase | 2021-12-30 |
| 2021-12-21 | $96.14 | StocksVT | NormalDefensive | Defensive reduction | 2021-12-20 |
| 2021-09-28 | $41,035 | BitcoinFBTC/BTC | NormalDefensive | Defensive reduction | 2021-09-27 |
| 2020-04-27 | $7,796 | BitcoinFBTC/BTC | CautionNormal | Cash-funded increase | 2020-04-24 |
