Built for taxable accounts where selling has a cost. It uses slower, asset-specific defensive rules to reduce severe drawdowns while limiting short-term taxable sales.
The confirmed 60/30/10 target and each sleeve's current share of maximum exposure. This portfolio uses asset-specific defensive states rather than the market nowcast. Sales still require account-level tax-lot review.
Choose the most you would allocate to each asset. The current portfolio signals below will scale to your maximums, with any unused allocation held in cash.
Maximums can total up to 100%. Lower one asset before raising another when fully allocated. Your settings are saved only in this browser.
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Each sleeve can reduce exposure independently. The model publishes a target, but cost basis, holding period, cash flows, and tax rates determine how an account should implement it.
Stocks: Two month-end closes below the 10-month average plus a 10% drawdown from the trailing 12-month high reduce VT to 20% of maximum exposure. Two closes back above the average restore normal exposure. The 200-week figures are context only.
State effective 2023-03-01. Historical defensive reductions: 2 (0.30 per year).
Gold: Gold stays at its strategic maximum because long-history tests did not support a standalone sell rule.
State effective 2020-01-02. Historical defensive reductions: 0 (0.00 per year).
Bitcoin: A bearish cloud signal can reduce exposure to two-thirds or one-third. Recovery also requires a reset to the completed-week 200-week average.
State effective 2026-08-21. Historical defensive reductions: 2 (0.30 per year).
The taxable model accepts more drawdown than the tax-deferred portfolio in exchange for fewer defensive sales.
Pretax daily reconstruction beginning at 60% stocks, 30% gold, and 10% Bitcoin. Taxes, cost basis, and account-specific lots are excluded.
2020-01-02 → 2026-09-03
11 Taxable KISS target changes
CAGR 18.1%; max drawdown -23.0%.
CAGR 20.8%; max drawdown -29.2%.
Model-simulation Sortino divided by 60/30/10 annual rebalance Sortino. Treat cautiously until the common sample spans more regimes.
| Portfolio | Ending value | Total return | CAGR | Sortino ratio | Max drawdown | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60/30/10 Taxable KISS | $303,835 | 203.8% | 18.1% | 1.74 | -23.0% | 14.7% |
| 60/30/10 annual rebalance | $353,565 | 253.6% | 20.8% | 1.69 | -29.2% | 17.4% |
Taxable KISS rule: Taxable KISS starts at 60% stocks / 30% gold / 10% bitcoin. At each month-end, VT requires two consecutive closes below its 10-month average and a drawdown of at least 10% from its trailing 12-month high before reducing to 20% of its strategic maximum; it returns to normal only after two consecutive month-end closes above that average. Bitcoin continues to use the daily 20/60/120/30 Ichimoku rule: an exact bearish Tenkan/Kijun cross below the cloud scales Bitcoin to 66.7% at +25% above its completed-week 200-week average and 33.3% at +100%; recovery requires a 200-week-average reset followed by a bullish cloud condition. Gold remains at 100% as the strategic diversifier. Signals execute on the next portfolio session, unused exposure earns the 3-month T-bill proxy, and Bitcoin is reviewed at each year-end with a cap where its odds versus the rest of the portfolio equal 150% of its strategic target odds.
Matching-allocation benchmark: Benchmark starts with the same 60% stocks / 30% gold / 10% bitcoin portfolio and is fully rebalanced on the first trading day of each calendar year.
Sortino Ratio: return per unit of downside volatility. On this page, it is calculated as CAGR divided by annualized downside deviation of daily returns below 0%; higher is better.
Next-session implementation dates for VT and Bitcoin. Gold remains fully invested.
| Effective date | Price | Asset | State change | Implementation | Signal date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | $78,335 | BitcoinFBTC/BTC | CautionNormal | Cash-funded increase | 2026-08-20 |
| 2024-08-06 | $56,034 | BitcoinFBTC/BTC | NormalCaution | Defensive reduction | 2024-08-05 |
| 2023-03-01 | $84.14 | StocksVT | DefensiveNormal | Cash-funded increase | 2023-02-28 |
| 2023-01-17 | $21,162 | BitcoinFBTC/BTC | DefensiveNormal | Cash-funded increase | 2023-01-14 |
| 2022-05-02 | $85.64 | StocksVT | NormalDefensive | Defensive reduction | 2022-04-29 |
| 2021-09-28 | $41,035 | BitcoinFBTC/BTC | NormalDefensive | Defensive reduction | 2021-09-27 |
| 2020-08-03 | $70.73 | StocksVT | DefensiveNormal | Cash-funded increase | 2020-07-31 |
| 2020-04-27 | $7,796 | BitcoinFBTC/BTC | DefensiveNormal | Cash-funded increase | 2020-04-24 |
| 2020-04-01 | $53.03 | StocksVT | NormalDefensive | Defensive reduction | 2020-03-31 |
