The Macro Dashboard

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The Macro Dashboard is a public-data investing dashboard for people who want a disciplined, repeatable way to manage portfolio risk.

The goal is simple: start with a base portfolio, measure the current macro and market environment, then scale exposure up or down using rules instead of emotion.

It is not a stock-picking service, a market-timing newsletter, or personal financial advice. It is a transparent framework for answering one practical question:

How much risk should this portfolio be taking right now?

The model portfolio starts with stocks, gold, and bitcoin

The Macro Dashboard starts from a maximum-risk portfolio of 60% stocks, 30% gold, and 10% bitcoin. That is the model portfolio's full-risk allocation, not a requirement for your personal portfolio.

The dashboard then decides how much of that maximum exposure should be active today. Unused exposure moves to cash.

This is why cash matters. It is not just a parking lot. It is dry powder, risk reduction, and the source of capital for future exposure changes. The field note Cash Is Not Doing Nothing explains that tradeoff more directly.

The dashboard uses two overlays

The first overlay is top-down. It asks what kind of macro and liquidity backdrop the portfolio is facing. Risk-on environments can allow more exposure. Risk-off environments reduce risk and increase cash.

The second overlay is bottom-up. VAMS, or Volatility Adjusted Momentum Signals, asks whether each sleeve is being rewarded by the market right now. Bullish assets receive 100% of their top-down target, neutral assets receive 50%, and bearish assets receive 0%.

That combination lets the dashboard reduce exposure while the market is still rising, or add exposure before the economic data looks obviously good. Those two uncomfortable moments are covered in Why the Dashboard Can Reduce Risk While the Market Is Still Going Up and The Market Cycle Usually Turns Before the Economic Data Looks Good.

Why liquidity gets so much attention

Risk assets do not move on earnings and valuation alone. They also move on liquidity, funding conditions, real rates, and the dollar.

The dollar is especially important because it is the funding currency for much of the world. When the dollar rises quickly, global financial conditions can tighten even if the local story looks fine. Start with The Dollar Is the World's Margin Call for that framework.

Bitcoin also sits inside this liquidity conversation. It may be a long-term monetary asset, but over dashboard-relevant time frames it often trades like high-beta liquidity exposure. That is the point of Why Bitcoin Trades Like a Liquidity Asset More Often Than an Inflation Hedge.

How to use the current allocation

The most useful number is often Percentage of Maximum Exposure. If your personal base allocation differs from the model portfolio, use the dashboard's percentage as a multiplier.

Example:

The same logic works for gold and bitcoin. This lets you use the dashboard's risk signal without copying the model portfolio exactly.

If you manage your portfolio in a spreadsheet, the Follow and Data page includes JSON endpoints and a Google Sheets example for pulling the dashboard data directly into your own workflow.

What this is not

The Macro Dashboard is not a guarantee of outperformance.

It will have false signals. It will sometimes reduce exposure before a rebound. It will sometimes add exposure before volatility returns. It uses public data, which can be revised, delayed, incomplete, or noisy.

The best use of the dashboard is to make your own process more disciplined:

That is the purpose of The Macro Dashboard: not to predict every move, but to keep portfolio risk aligned with the evidence. The Field Notes expand on one dashboard-relevant idea at a time.