A rules-based way to manage portfolio risk
The Macro Dashboard helps answer one practical question: how much of your maximum portfolio risk should be active today?
The problem
Long-term investors usually know what they want to own. The harder question is how much risk to carry when markets weaken. Holding through every drawdown can be costly, especially near retirement. Trading every headline creates a different problem.
The approach
Start with a maximum allocation, measure the market with public data, and use confirmed signals to scale each sleeve up or down. The process is designed to react to evidence without turning every market move into a trade.
Start with a maximum allocation
The reference portfolio is 60% global stocks, 30% gold, and 10% Bitcoin. Those weights define full exposure for the model. They are not a recommendation for every investor.
The portable signal is percentage of maximum exposure. If stocks are at 50% of maximum and your own full stock allocation is 40%, your current stock target would be 20%. Any unused exposure moves to cash.
Use confirmed signals, not forecasts
The dashboard does not try to predict recessions or call market tops. It measures current conditions and changes exposure when the evidence crosses a defined threshold.
Top-down regime
The tax-deferred portfolio scores risk appetite, credit, rates and inflation, and funding conditions. The result sets the portfolio's starting risk level.
Bottom-up confirmation
VAMS checks momentum and trend for stocks, gold, and Bitcoin. Each asset can receive all, half, or none of its top-down target.
Implementation delay
Signals must persist before the confirmed allocation changes. Risk reductions require two closes. Additions and same-risk rotations require five.
Choose the portfolio that fits the account
The two portfolios share the same maximum allocation. Their trading rules differ because a sale inside an IRA is not the same as a sale that creates a taxable gain.
KISS portfolio
Best suited to IRAs, retirement plans, and other accounts where realized gains are not the main constraint.
- More responsive to changing market risk
- Stronger focus on drawdown protection
- More frequent allocation changes
Taxable KISS portfolio
Built for brokerage accounts where cost basis, holding period, and realized gains affect every defensive sale.
- Slower, asset-specific defensive signals
- Fewer short-term taxable sales
- More drawdown accepted to reduce tax friction
Turn a model target into an account decision
- Set your maximum allocation. Decide how much stocks, gold, and Bitcoin you would hold at full risk.
- Read the current percentage of maximum exposure. Apply that percentage to your own maximum for each sleeve.
- Check whether the target is confirmed. Pending signals are visible, but they do not change the confirmed model allocation.
- Review account constraints. In taxable accounts, consider cash flows, cost basis, holding period, and wash-sale exposure before selling.
- Act on your schedule. The dashboard publishes model targets, not personalized trade instructions.
Risk management has a cost
The portfolios will sometimes reduce exposure before a rebound. They will sometimes add risk before volatility returns. Public data can be delayed, revised, or incomplete.
The goal is not to avoid every loss or beat the market every year. It is to keep large portfolio decisions tied to a repeatable process when markets become stressful.
Historical results are simulations under the stated methodology. They exclude personal taxes and do not represent audited live performance.